Welcome to Oscar nominations week! After two pushbacks necessitated by the tragic Los Angeles wildfires, we’re lastly right here, and 6 months of questions, debates, and good-faith (lol) arguments are about to be answered.
This has been a bizarre season. Partially that’s as a result of it’s been a yr seemingly devoid of frontrunners, but additionally as a result of the wildfires have drastically modified how Oscar season operates. Usually there are an insane variety of marketing campaign occasions in the course of the Oscar voting interval, because the would-be contenders attempt to schmooze out each final vote. This yr, these occasions had been almost all canceled, leaving the movies and performances to really communicate for themselves. Annually I usually go on a mini-rant about why the Golden Globes don’t actually matter that a lot. However this yr, within the absence of almost any Oscar-related occasions for the reason that Globes aired two weeks in the past, they had been mainly the primary, final, and solely impression on the races many citizens ever obtained.
Regardless of the prolonged voting interval, the wildfires additionally possible affected how lots of the contending movies voters truly watched. Yearly brings loud and open questions of the “Did voters truly watch Film XX?” selection, however this yr, these questions could change into much more deafening. Even for voters who by no means needed to evacuate their properties, it’s comprehensible that their minds could have been occupied by extra than simply whether or not they actually, really want to observe the Donald Trump film or the second half of “The Brutalist.” (I child!) That might result in fewer nominated movies than we’re used to, with a a lot bigger proportion of performing nominations coming from Greatest Image nominees. (I’m predicting that 18 of the 20 performing nominees will come from Greatest Image nominees, which might nearly definitely be a report.)
Predictions for the most important races comply with under, with all the (realistically) potential contenders listed so as of their probability of being nominated, and my official predictions for nominations listed in daring. Benefit from the remaining few days of hope to your favourite movies after which be part of me again right here Thursday morning to evaluate the damages.

BEST PICTURE
- “The Brutalist”
- “Anora”
- “Conclave”
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “Depraved”
- “A Full Unknown”
- “The Substance”
- “Dune: Half Two”
- “A Actual Ache”
- “Sing Sing”
- “Nickel Boys”
- “September 5”
- “Challengers”
- “I’m Nonetheless Right here”
- “A Totally different Man”
As normally occurs by this time of yr, the Greatest Image race has sorted itself into three tiers. Six movies look assured of their spots: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Full Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Depraved.” All six of these movies clearly have each the passionate help and the broad help wanted, they are going to all possible be nominated for a number of craft classes, and every of them ought to obtain no less than two performing nominations. That is as broad open a race as we’ve seen in a few years, however the eventual Greatest Image winner will certainly come from that group of six.
Then, three movies look fairly protected to be nominated however will nonetheless be sweating it out till they hear their title known as: “The Substance,” “Dune: Half Two,” and “A Actual Ache.” In every case, there are questions on precisely how widespread the movie’s help is among the many Academy. “Dune: Half Two” ought to cruise to a number of nominations within the craft classes, but it surely’s solely a protracted shot for Greatest Director and isn’t a think about any of the performing races.
“A Actual Ache” is a serious contender for Greatest Unique Screenplay and Greatest Supporting Actor, however that could be it. “The Substance” may think about a number of races (director, actress, supporting actress, authentic screenplay, and make-up). Nonetheless, the graphic nature of its gore and physique horror possible signifies that it’ll be a nonstarter for a big swath of voters. I count on all three movies to obtain Greatest Image nominations, but it surely wouldn’t be a shock if one falls out.
After which there’s every thing else—anyplace between two and a dozen motion pictures, relying on how beneficiant you need to be—possible combating for just one remaining spot. Most of those have little or no probability of being nominated, like “Juror #2,” “I’m Nonetheless Right here,” “A Totally different Man,” “Challengers,” and “All We Think about as Mild.” Greater than possible, that remaining spot will probably be taken by considered one of three motion pictures: “September 5,” “Nickel Boys,” and “Sing Sing.” And fascinatingly, or maybe prophetically, the largest factor these three movies have in frequent is a broadly maligned launch technique.
Within the case of “Sing Sing” (distributed by A24), it was an oddly timed summer time launch and a gradual rollout that left many confused about precisely when the movie would attain completely different elements of the nation. It was additionally re-released this previous weekend in a transfer that may both look good or too little too late, relying on how nomination morning goes.
In the meantime, “Nickel Boys” and “September 5”—distributed by Amazon and Paramount, respectively—each skipped the standard Toronto awards launch (opting to solely play on the ultra-exclusive Telluride Movie Pageant) after which foolishly picked a late-January launch for many markets, which suggests neither film has had nearly any cultural footprint throughout Oscar voting. It’s a real double whammy of awards season mishandling, and it speaks to the actual high quality of each movies that both one would possibly nonetheless eke out a Greatest Image nomination regardless of its inept marketing campaign.
The Producers Guild—which additionally nominates ten movies and is commonly probably the most correct Greatest Image bellwether—gave that remaining nomination to “September 5,” however that have to be taken with a number of grains of salt as a result of “September 5” is a film concerning the significance of producers making robust, consequential selections. Actors, then again, are the biggest department of the Academy, and I believe they’re extra more likely to help a film concerning the transformative and redemptive energy of performing. That’s why I’m betting on “Sing Sing” to be our tenth and remaining Greatest Image nominee.

BEST DIRECTOR
- Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
- Sean Baker, “Anora”
- Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
- Edward Berger, “Conclave”
- RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
- Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
- Payal Kapadia, “All We Think about as Mild”
- Denis Villeneuve, “Dune: Half Two”
- James Mangold, “A Full Unknown”
- Luca Guadagnino, “Challengers”
The disclaimer that at all times must be repeated yearly is that two issues are true of the Academy Administrators Department—they have an inclination to have the perfect style of any Academy department, they usually additionally are inclined to yield probably the most surprises of their nominations. Whether or not it’s Greta Gerwig being omitted for “Barbie” final yr, Denis Villeneuve being omitted for “Dune: Half One” three years in the past, or Ben Affleck being omitted for 2012’s “Argo” (the eventual Greatest Image winner), the nominees for Greatest Director constantly present the largest shock on Oscar nomination morning.
So we now have to watch out throwing across the “Protected” label with the contenders, and solely two names really feel really protected: Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) and Sean Baker (“Anora”). These are the one two contenders that not solely obtained nominations from all the main precursors however whose movies additionally examine off the essential quadrifecta of crucial adoration, viewers raves, monetary success, and apparent diploma of issue. Each different contender is combating a battle on a number of of these fronts.
Coralie Fargeat succeeds on most of these fronts, too, however “The Substance” faces the completely different, arguably larger problem of style bias. However after BAFTA, SAG, and the Globes confirmed apparent love for the movie, what as soon as felt like a protracted shot hope for a nomination now seems to be near a 3rd lock. Sure, Fargeat missed with the DGA (who went with James Mangold), however that’s not shocking given the populist lean of the guilds.
On paper, Edward Berger (“Conclave”) and Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) needs to be the ultimate two nominees, and that’s definitely the almost definitely end result. Being European also needs to assist them with the exceedingly worldwide Administrators Department. However with Fargeat additionally a probable nominee, can three Europeans actually get in? And Berger faces the extra problem of getting helmed the least showy movie of the most important contenders, whereas Audiard faces the unenviable hurdle of his movie being the topic of a lot on-line vitriol, from critics and audiences alike. That divisiveness shouldn’t be an issue within the performing races, but it surely could possibly be an actual concern with the snobbier Administrators Department.
If both Berger or Audiard are omitted, who may take their place? James Mangold obtained a DGA nomination for “A Full Unknown,” and Denis Villeneuve obtained a BAFTA nomination for “Dune: Half Two,” however the Administrators Department normally seems to be towards artier fare than a Hollywood music biopic or franchise installment. Payal Kapadia obtained a Golden Globe nomination for “All We Think about as Mild,” and India’s inexplicable failure to submit the movie for consideration for Greatest Worldwide Movie means that is possible the one class to honor it, which voters are certainly conscious of.
After which there’s the unbelievable imaginative and prescient RaMell Ross dropped at the display screen with “Nickel Boys,” turning the movie right into a poetic first-person journey. It’s undoubtedly one of many yr’s most singular directorial achievements, however a late launch has contributed to the movie’s struggles to achieve a lot traction with different awards our bodies, settling for one nomination every from BAFTA and the Globes.
Final yr, it appeared like Greta Gerwig was safely in whereas Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”) and Jonathan Glazer (“The Zone of Curiosity”) had been combating for the ultimate spot, however then each Triet and Glazer had been nominated whereas Gerwig was omitted. One thing related may occur this yr, with both Ross or Kapadia getting in whereas both Berger or Audiard is omitted. In what appears like a four-way toss-up for the ultimate two spots, I don’t need to predict the chalk end result—Berger and Audiard getting the ultimate two slots—with a department that nearly by no means votes chalk.
So I’m rolling with Ross (who made a movie I really like) over Audiard (who made a movie I don’t love), as a result of I battle to think about the Administrators Department nominating somebody whose movie is the topic of such vehement backlash. Sure, it’s occurred earlier than, most lately with Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Disappointment”), Todd Phillips (“Joker”), and Adam McKay (“Vice”), however that dreadful 2.6 Letterboxd ranking for “Emilia Pérez” has scared me away from Audiard. That’s a deeply imperfect cause, however predicting what the Administrators Department will do is itself an train in imperfect reasoning.

BEST ACTOR
- Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
- Timothée Chalamet, “A Full Unknown”
- Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
- Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
- Hugh Grant, “Heretic”
- Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
- Daniel Craig, “Queer”
- Sebastian Stan, “A Totally different Man”
- Jesse Eisenberg, “A Actual Ache”
- Glen Powell, “Hit Man”
Essentially the most ubiquitous query of this awards season has been who will declare the fifth Greatest Actor slot. It’s been a bizarre race the place 4 of the slots have been seemingly sewn up for months by Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), Adrian Brody (“The Brutalist”), Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”), and Timothée Chalamet (“A Full Unknown”), however nobody fairly passes the scent take a look at for that fifth spot.
Predictions have largely settled on Daniel Craig for “Queer,” and Craig was nominated by each SAG and the Golden Globes. However I harbor critical doubts about whether or not “Queer” (or Craig’s efficiency in it) will work for many voters, and Craig’s omission from the BAFTA nominations appeared particularly obtrusive for such a beloved Brit. But when not Craig, then who?
Sebastian Stan is by some means each the almost definitely and the least possible different, due to the very respectable concern that he’ll break up his personal vote between his two starring roles (“The Apprentice” and “A Totally different Man”). One of many tales folks have been preserving their eye on all season was whether or not both of these motion pictures would handle to supplant the opposite as the plain contender that Stan needs to be campaigning for, and that emphatically hasn’t occurred. Stan gained the Golden Globe for “A Totally different Man” after which obtained a BAFTA nomination for “The Apprentice,” solely complicated issues additional.
Two different potentialities are Jesse Eisenberg and Hugh Grant. Eisenberg has the good thing about being within the film (“A Actual Ache”) that voters in all probability like probably the most, and because the author/director of that movie voters could really feel particularly inclined to help him. The massive impediment there, although, is that Kieran Culkin so clearly steals the film, and leaves the viewer barely even conscious of Eisenberg’s (excellent) efficiency.
In the meantime, Grant should overcome the Academy’s bias towards horror movies to be nominated for “Heretic,” however in a yr the place Demi Moore has emerged as a frontrunner for a horror movie, perhaps that’s not the tall order many assume. Plus Grant’s new “villain period” has made him much more adored than he already was, and he’s broadly considered as lengthy overdue for Oscar recognition (he’s by no means been nominated earlier than). In what’s primarily a contest between what vital impediment worries me the least, I’ll take Sinister Hugh Grant mansplaining Monopoly and Radiohead in “Heretic.”

BEST ACTRESS
- Mikey Madison, “Anora”
- Demi Moore, “The Substance”
- Cynthia Erivo, “Depraved”
- Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Laborious Truths”
- Fernanda Torres, “I’m Nonetheless Right here”
- Kate Winslet, “Lee”
- Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
- Angelina Jolie, “Maria”
- Pamela Anderson, “The Final Showgirl”
The largest query I had for myself earlier than I sat down to put in writing this piece was whether or not or not I might predict Marianne Jean-Baptiste to get a Greatest Actress nomination. I consider Jean-Baptiste gave the one finest performing efficiency I noticed in 2024, and he or she was awarded Greatest Actress of the yr by all the nation’s most distinguished critics teams (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and the Nationwide Society of Movie Critics, amongst many others). And but, Jean-Baptiste wasn’t even nominated by SAG or the Golden Globes, the latter of whom actually nominated 12 lead actresses and nonetheless by some means couldn’t discover room for her. That snub could have been the strangest second of this awards season.
However lastly, final week, Marianne Jean-Baptiste broke by with a BAFTA nomination, which I consider (and hope) means extra for her prospects than these earlier omissions. Additionally in her favor are my doubts about anybody else having the general energy to take her spot.
Let’s begin on the prime. Mikey Madison has been the presumptive favourite on this class since “Anora” premiered at Cannes final Might, and although that’s not fairly true, she’ll nonetheless cruise to a nomination. Cynthia Erivo has likewise had her spot locked up since “Depraved” premiered just a few months in the past. Demi Moore has survived preliminary doubts about whether or not the gratuitous gore of “The Substance” would scare voters away from the movie to instantly emerge because the class’s new frontrunner after a rousing acceptance speech on the Golden Globes. And Karla Sofía Gascón needs to be protected by advantage of the general competition for “Emilia Pérez,” which is more likely to obtain probably the most whole nominations.
After which it will get tough. For months it was assumed Angelina Jolie was assured a nomination for taking part in Maria Callas in “Maria,” however tepid response to the movie led her to being omitted by each SAG and BAFTA, and it’s arduous to think about her discovering sufficient help to succeed with the Academy. Saoirse Ronan’s marketing campaign additionally fell aside as a consequence of related indifference to her movie, “The Outrun,” whereas Nicole Kidman’s probabilities for “Babygirl” by no means fairly gelled in the best way many anticipated. Kate Winslet and Pamela Anderson have each surprisingly emerged as contenders for nominations, however they’re hampered by not simply tepid enthusiasm for his or her movies, but additionally their restricted potential to marketing campaign in the course of the wildfires .
That leaves Fernanda Torres for “I’m Nonetheless Right here,” a Brazilian movie anticipated to be a contender within the Greatest Worldwide Movie race, and right here’s the place my private failings have to be uncovered: “I’m Nonetheless Right here” is the one movie talked about anyplace on this piece that I haven’t managed to see but. Torres gave a terrific acceptance speech when she gained on the Golden Globes, and by all accounts she offers a powerhouse efficiency within the movie. She in all probability has the perfect probability at claiming the fifth spot on this race, however I merely can not predict a efficiency I haven’t seen over a efficiency that I believe is way and away the yr’s finest. So I’m betting my fictional {dollars} on Marianne Jean-Baptiste.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Kieran Culkin, “A Actual Ache”
- Edward Norton, “A Full Unknown”
- Man Pearce, “The Brutalist”
- Yura Borisov, “Anora”
- Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing”
- Jeremy Sturdy, “The Apprentice”
- Stanley Tucci, “Conclave”
- Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
- Jonathan Bailey, “Depraved”
- Karren Karagulian, “Anora”
As with Greatest Director, Greatest Supporting Actor appears to be a seven-person race, wherein 5 names seem protected(-ish), whereas two others loom as potential spoilers. The resumes of the highest 5 contenders are almost spotless: Yura Borisov (“Anora”), Kieran Culkin (“A Actual Ache”), Edward Norton (“A Full Unknown”), Man Pearce (“The Brutalist”), and Jeremy Sturdy (“The Apprentice”) every obtained nominations from each BAFTA and the Golden Globes, and all however Pearce had been additionally nominated by SAG (who went rogue and gave their fifth slot to Jonathan Bailey for “Depraved”). That’s about as a lot of a five-person consensus as we’ve ever seen in an Oscar performing race.
However it’s by no means actually that easy, and some main names stay vital threats. Now we have to begin with Denzel Washington, who’s been nominated for 10 Oscars (and gained two), and who steals the present in “Gladiator II.” Whereas that movie’s awards momentum has utterly stalled out—and barely ever received began, at that—an actor so beloved by the Academy can by no means actually be discounted. The identical is true of Stanley Tucci, who’s solely been nominated as soon as, however who can also be adored within the business and has the additional benefit of being in a movie (“Conclave”) that voters in all probability actually appreciated.
Intuitively, Jeremy Sturdy appears like probably the most susceptible of the 5 frontrunners. His efficiency as Roy Cohn was probably the most memorable a part of “The Apprentice,” however there are actual questions on whether or not voters need to sit by a film about Donald Trump. Up to now, the movie’s material hasn’t gave the impression to be an awards deterrent, however that might change given the present state of affairs in Los Angeles. If the town’s tragic wildfires prevented voters from getting as deep of their To Watch stacks as they meant, that might imply extra votes for the forged of “Conclave” or “Depraved,” which voters undoubtedly watched, and fewer votes for movies like “The Apprentice” or “Gladiator II,” which voters perhaps by no means received to.
After which there’s Clarence Maclin, who was considered an actual contender for taking part in a model of himself in “Sing Sing,” till he did not get nominations from SAG and the Golden Globes. However now he’s again within the combine after being nominated from BAFTA, and that BAFTA nomination feels prefer it holds extra weight than these earlier omissions, as a result of SAG and the Globes usually place the next worth on film stars, whereas BAFTA typically has a, ummm, tough time nominating African Individuals (Denzel Washington has actually by no means been nominated by BAFTA).
So if Maclin can succeed with that group—the group who most resembles the Academy—his odds is likely to be much better than had been assumed. It may go both manner, and I nonetheless assume Tucci has a great probability regardless of no precursor nominations, however I count on Maclin to edge out Jeremy Sturdy for the ultimate slot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
- Ariana Grande-Butera, “Depraved”
- Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
- Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
- Monica Barbaro, “A Full Unknown”
- Margaret Qualley, “The Substance”
- Jamie Lee Curtis, “The Final Showgirl”
- Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
- Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
- Selena Gomez, “Emilia Pérez”
Once I wrote about the state of the most important Oscar races following the autumn festivals final September, I identified that this yr’s Greatest Supporting Actress class may yield probably the most various slate of nominees ever, with Zoe Saldaña, Danielle Deadwyler, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, and Joan Chen all wanting like contenders for nominations. So I’m as upset as anybody to show in a remaining slate of predictions with 5 of these six ladies being omitted.
How did that occur? “Depraved” and “A Full Unknown” didn’t premiere till later within the fall, so Ariana Grande-Butera and Monica Barbaro weren’t elements but, however their performances are so plain and essential to their movies that their competition took maintain nearly instantly. Chen, Paz, and Gomez, in the meantime, had been in all probability at all times lengthy photographs. However Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) showing to fall out of competition is troubling.
Who is aware of whether or not it’s as a result of voters simply aren’t watching their movies (which is its personal major problem), or just that voters assume Isabella Rossellini gave a greater efficiency with a curtsy than Danielle Deadwyler gave along with her complete soul. And it’s no disrespect to Rossellini—who actually did nail the hell out of that curtsy—to acknowledge that these roles and people performances don’t carry comparable weight.
Greater than something, it seems voters simply actually like Rossellini and need to help her, which additionally appears to be what’s occurring with Jamie Lee Curtis’s marketing campaign for “The Final Showgirl” (a case the place I’ve fewer good issues to say concerning the film or the efficiency). Whereas there’s nothing overtly nefarious about voters merely liking the actress behind the efficiency, it’s not a terrific look that this constantly appears to occur with white ladies, and constantly appears to occur on the expense of Black ladies. (Recall two years in the past, when Curtis gained this class over Angela Bassett, or Andrea Riseborough and Ana de Armas obtained surprising Greatest Actress nominations whereas Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis had been curiously omitted.)
Anyway. Saldaña and Grande are certain issues right here, whereas Felicity Jones seems to be comparatively protected, although studies that voters aren’t watching the second half of “The Brutalist” (which options everything of Jones’s efficiency) are troubling and will harm her probabilities. Rossellini and Barbaro seem like the almost definitely different two nominees, however Rossellini should overcome a tiny function whereas Barbaro is combating towards nearly zero title recognition (which equates to zero of the “Oh I simply love her” votes that Curtis and Rossellini are hoarding).
If both misses out, Curtis is a giant menace as a consequence of her campaigning chops, Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”) has the good thing about being within the film voters in all probability like the perfect (or no less than watched), and Danielle Deadwyler and Ellis-Taylor ought to nonetheless be potentialities primarily based purely on the energy of their performances. Of all this yr’s performing classes, Greatest Supporting Actress in all probability has the best variance in what number of methods the nominations may play out, however I give the sting to Rossellini and Barbaro.